Sáenz et al. (2010: 606-607) publicaron una simulación del clima de México y proyecciones para 2030, 2060 y 2090. Obtienen los siguientes incrementos respecto al presente:
Variable \ Proyección |
2030 |
2060 |
2090 |
Promedio anual de temperatura (°C) |
+1.5 |
+2.3 |
+3.7 |
Precipitación anual (mm) |
-6.7% |
-9.0% |
-18.2% |
_____
Currie, David J. 2001.
Projected effects of climate change on patterns of vertebrate and tree species richness in the conterminous United States. Ecosystems, 4: 216-225 doi:
10.1007/s10021-001-0005-4.
Crookston, Nicholas L.; Gerald E. Rehfeldt; Gary E. Dixon and Aaron R. Weiskittel. 2010.
Addressing climate change in the forest vegetation simulator to assess impacts on landscape forest dynamics. Forest Ecology and Management, 260(7): 1198-1211 doi:
10.1016/j.foreco.2010.07.013.
Deutsch, Curtis A.; Joshua J. Tewksbury; Raymond B. Huey; Kimberly S. Sheldon; Cameron K. Ghalambor; David C. Haak and Paul R. Martin. 2008.
Impacts of climate warming on terrestrial ectotherms across latitude. PNAS, 105(18): 6668-6672 doi:
10.1073/pnas.0709472105.
Dittmar, Michael and Anne-Sylvie Nicollerat. 2004.
Man-made climate change: Facts and fiction. arXiv: physics/0403083v1 [physics.soc-ph].
Dorf, Erling. 1959.
Climatic changes of the past and present. Museum of Paleontology. The University of Michigan, 13(8): 181-210.
González-Gaudiano, Edgar. 2007.
Educación y cambio climático: Un desafío inexorable.
Trayectorias, 9(25): 33-44.
Gregory, P. J.; J. S. I. Ingram and M. Brklacich. 2005.
Climate change and food security. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 360(1463): 2139-2148 doi:
10.1098/rstb.2005.1745.
Hansen, James. 2007.
How can we avert dangerous climate change?. arXiv: 0706.3720v1 [physics.ao-ph].
Holmgren, Milena; Paul Stapp; Christopher R. Dickman; Carlos Gracia; Sonia Graham; Julio R. Gutiérrez; Christine Hice; Fabián Jaksic; Douglas A. Kelt; Mike Letnic; Mauricio Lima; Bernat C. López; Peter L. Meserve; W. Bryan Milstead; Gary A. Polis; M. Andrea Previtali; Michael Richter; Santi Sabaté and Francisco A. Squeo. 2006.
Extreme climatic events shape arid and semiarid ecosystems. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 4: 87-95.
Lewis, Owen T. 2006.
Climate change, species-area curves and the extinction crisis. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 361: 163-171 doi:
10.1098/rstb.2005.1712.
Millin, Richard B. 1956.
Problems of climatic changes. Journal of Range Management, 9(1): 4-5.
Overpeck, Jonathan T. and Julia E. Cole. 2006.
Abrupt change in Earth's climate system. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 31: 1-31 doi:
10.1146/annurev.energy.30.050504.144308.
Parmesan, Camille. 2006.
Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Annual Review of Ecology Evolution and Systematics, 37: 637-669 doi:
10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.37.091305.110100.
Peteet, Dorothy. 2000.
Sensitivity and rapidity of vegetational response to abrupt climate change. PNAS, 97(4): 1359-1361.
Porter, John R. and Mikhail A. Semenov. 2005.
Crop responses to climatic variation. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 360(1463): 2021-2035 doi:
10.1098/rstb.2005.1752.
Post, Eric; Mads C. Forchhammer; Nils Chr. Stenseth y Terry V. Callaghan. 2001.
The timing of life-history events in a changing climate. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 268: 15-23 doi:
10.1098/rspb.2000.1324.
Qian, Hong; Catherine Badgley and David L. Fox. 2008.
The latitudinal gradient of beta diversity in relation to climate and topography for mammals in North America. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 18(1): 111-122 doi:
10.1111/j.1466-8238.2008.00415.x.
*** Sáenz-Romero, Cuauhtémoc; Gerald E. Rehfeldt; Nicholas L. Crookston; Pierre Duval; Rémi St-Amant; Jean Beaulieu and Bryce A. Richardson. 2010.
Spline models of contemporary, 2030, 2060 and 2090 climates for Mexico and their use in understanding climate-change impacts on the vegetation. Climatic Change, 102(3-4): 595-623 doi:
10.1007/s10584-009-9753-5.
Schneider, Stephen H. and Terry L. Root. 1996.
Ecological implications of climate change will include surprises. Biodiversity and Conservation, 5(9): 1109-1119 doi:
10.1007/BF00052720.
Thomas, Chris D.; Alison Cameron; Rhys E. Green; Michel Bakkenes; Linda J. Beaumont; Yvonne C. Collingham; Barend F. N. Erasmus; Marinez Ferreira_De_Siqueira; Alan Grainger; Lee Hannah; Lesley Hughes; Brian Huntley; Albert S. Van_Jaarsveld; Guy F. Midgley; Lera Miles; Miguel A. Ortega-Huerta; Andrew Townsend Peterson; Oliver L. Phillips and Stephen E. Williams. 2004.
Extinction risk from climate change. Nature, 427: 145-148.
Trejo-Vázquez, Rosa Irma; Enrique Martínez-Meyer; Edith Calixto-Pérez; Salvador Sánchez-Colón; R. Vázquez-De_La_Torre and Ma. De_Lourdes Villers-Ruiz. 2011.
Analysis of the effects of climate change on plant communities and mammals in México. Atmósfera, 24(1): 1-14.
Wang, Guiling and David Schimel. 2003.
Climate change, climate modes, and climate impacts. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 28: 1-28 doi:
10.1146/annurev.energy.28.050302.105444.
Yasuhara, Moriaki; Thomas M. Cronin; Peter B. DeMenocal; Hisayo Okahashi and Braddock K. Linsley. 2008.
Abrupt climate change and collapse of deep-sea ecosystems. PNAS, 105(5): 1556-1560 doi:
10.1073/pnas.0705486105.
USDA Forest Service. Rocky Mountain Research Station. Moscow Forestry Sciences Laboratory:
Research on Forest Climate Change: Potential Effects of Global Warming on Forests and Plant Climate Relationships in Western North America and Mexico //
Link